Methodology & Metrics Guide

The CDI is Iran Monitor's core readiness assessment framework. It evaluates each military and infrastructure power center across five weighted vectors:

• ▸Infrastructure (0-100): Physical facilities, energy supply, logistics and supply lines
• ▸Assets / Weaponry (0-100): Hardware platforms, weapons inventory, equipment serviceability
• ▸Human Capital (0-100): Leadership effectiveness, personnel availability, unit morale
• ▸Command & Control (0-100): Communication systems, decision-making speed, chain of command integrity
• ▸Functionality (0-100): Mission execution capability, operational output, force projection

We track the Iranian Rial against the US Dollar on the unofficial (black market / free market) rate, which is a more accurate indicator of real economic conditions than the official NIMA rate. The black market rate reflects actual supply-demand dynamics and serves as a barometer for economic confidence, sanctions impact, and internal stability. Data is sourced from Bonbast and Open Exchange Rates.

Airspace status is determined by monitoring active NOTAMs (Notices to Air Missions) issued by Iranian civil aviation authorities and international aviation bodies. Status levels include:

• ▸Open: All commercial and transit flights operating normally
• ▸Partially Closed: Some corridors open (e.g., international overflights), domestic airports restricted
• ▸Closed: Complete airspace closure — typically indicates active military operations

The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil trade. We monitor its operational status through AIS (Automatic Identification System) maritime data, naval force positioning reports, and official maritime advisories.

• ▸Open: Normal maritime traffic flow
• ▸Restricted: Limited traffic permitted, naval escorts may be required
• ▸Closed: Full naval blockade — no commercial transit

Province-level internet availability is tracked using data from network monitoring services and connectivity probes. We monitor seven key provinces (Tehran, Isfahan, Khuzestan, Hormozgan, Kermanshah, Bushehr, Sistan-Baluchestan) plus a national aggregate. Internet disruptions in Iran are historically used as a tool of suppression during protests and as a precursor to military operations. Values represent the percentage of normal connectivity (100% = fully operational, 0% = complete blackout).

We integrate real-time data from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), which uses VIIRS and MODIS satellite instruments to detect thermal anomalies. Each detection includes:

• ▸Fire Radiative Power (FRP): Measured in megawatts, indicates intensity of the thermal event
• ▸Brightness Temperature: Measured in Kelvin, helps distinguish industrial fires from explosions
• ▸Confidence Level: Low, nominal, or high — based on satellite detection algorithms
• ▸Geographic Match: Automated cross-referencing against known military/infrastructure sites within configurable radius

Intelligence signals are classified by type and severity to enable rapid assessment:

• ▸Signal Types: IMINT (imagery intelligence), SOCMINT (social media), ADS-B (aircraft tracking), AIS (maritime), WEBINT (web intelligence), SIGINT (signals intelligence), OSINT (general open source)
• ▸Severity Levels: Info (routine reporting), Warning (notable development), Alert (significant event requiring attention), Critical (high-impact event with immediate operational implications)
• ▸Each signal is tagged with source, timestamp, geographic location (province), and related power center when applicable

A per-province metric (0-100) that quantifies recent kinetic activity based on OSINT signals and FIRMS thermal detections. The score incorporates event count, severity weighting, and a 12-hour exponential decay function — ensuring the map reflects current rather than historical activity. Provinces with active strikes appear prominently on the geographic readiness map.

The Protest Intensity Index aggregates province-level assessments across three dimensions, all benchmarked against the January 2026 baseline (set as 100):

• ▸Geographic-Civil Dimension: Street protests, road blockades, bazaar closures, crowd sizes
• ▸Cyber-Network Dimension: OSINT signal volume, social media activity spikes, VPN usage indicators
• ▸Economic Dimension: Bazaar shutdown rates, currency volatility, informal market disruptions